Ukraine crisis tests unity as Biden visits Europe
After the disinterested, often EU-antagonistic Trump-years, the US is back with bells on when it comes to involvement in European security.
That's more or less been the message of President Joe Biden during his late-week dash to G7, EU and Nato summits in Brussels on Thursday, with a fly-by to Poland on Friday.
The president's visit was borne out of the shadows of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And its aim was two-fold:
- Symbolic: a determined show of Western unity in the face the Kremlin's attack on Ukraine, and on so-called liberal values, like democracy and human rights
- Practical: in terms of security - both energy security and defence
Biden says he's offering the EU access to US natural gas and hydrogen supplies, as the bloc tries to wean itself off a heavy reliance on Russian energy. This will take time to organise.
The US president also made headlines during his European trip, announcing any chemical attack launched by Russia in Ukraine would be met "in kind" by Nato. Though he declined to go into detail.
Washington had so far shown huge reluctance to get too involved in Ukraine for fear of provoking a wider war with nuclear power Russia.
Eastern Europeans have expressed frustration in past weeks at the point-blank refusal by the White House to contemplate imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, for instance.
Those same countries now welcome what they view as a change in Biden's tone. Though what he means in practice about a "proportionate" response should the Kremlin use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine, has been left - possibly intentionally - vague.
But while this new US interest and intervention has been welcomed by Europe's leaders, Brussels still suffers from an acute case of post-Trump wariness.
It's too simplistic to suggest the EU is now resolutely pivoting away from reliance on Russian energy and business ties, towards Washington instead.
France demands the EU avoid becoming dependent on any one country outside the bloc, including the US.
Donald Trump being re-elected president in 2024 is seen here as a very real possibility.
Instead, President Emmanuel Macron favours what he calls strategic sovereignty for the EU: where the bloc boosts its own energy and food production, technological advances and defence capabilities. The latter would be designed, Mr Macron is at pains to emphasise, to complement rather than rival Nato.
Frankly, even if the EU wanted to trump the alliance in terms of defence, it's beyond the realms of the realistic.
As is the idea that, five weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, intra-EU unity would still be 100% watertight.
The 27 member countries have competing priorities.
Central and Eastern European countries that now fear for their own security have been nicknamed the "sanctionistas". They favour far tougher, swifter sanctions against Moscow. Penalties introduced so far by the West have failed miserably to force Russia's Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and secure a realistic ceasefire in Ukraine, they argue.
Germany leads the more cautious EU members. Sanctions against Russia should have minimal repercussions in the countries imposing them, its Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this week. He's ruled out an Eastern European demand for an immediate ban on Russian oil, for instance. The EU relies on Russia for a third of its crude oil supplies. Losing that would send Germany and the rest of the EU plummeting into a recession, says Chancellor Scholz.
You probably remember Berlin trumpeting a new era at the start of Russia's onslaught in Ukraine. With promises to build up the German army and to end the country's decades-long dependence on Russian energy and close business ties.
But many in Brussels are now questioning Germany's resolve.
The more brutal the Kremlin's assault becomes in Ukraine, the tougher the choices facing western leaders as to how far they're willing to intervene. And the harder it will be for President Biden to maintain the united front he came to Europe to emphasise.
A big test for EU and transatlantic unity comes next week when Brussels hosts the EU-China summit. Coached by the US President, his counter-part in the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, promises to make it "absolutely clear" to Beijing that it will face "severe consequences" if China helps Russia get round economic sanctions or sends military support.
Will Germany drags it heels as to what form "severe consequences" might take? Berlin had pledged unwavering solidarity with Ukraine. That said, China is Germany's third most important trading partner.