Loyalist paramilitary groups in NI 'have 12,500 members'

There are an estimated 12,500 members of loyalist paramilitary groups in NI, a leaked security assessment has shown.

Briefings, obtained by BBC NI's Spotlight programme, cover all the paramilitary groups and are based on PSNI and MI5 intelligence.

The assessment says there are about 7,500 people in the UVF and 5,000 in the UDA.

Although many are not active, sources say they are still "card carrying" members.

Last month, the Independent Reporting Commission (IRC) warned paramilitary groups still pose a "clear and present danger" to Northern Ireland.

Set up by the UK and Irish governments, the Commission provides an annual assessment of progress towards ending paramilitarism, and has called for a process to begin to disband the groups.

History of the UVF

The Ulster Volunteer Force murdered more than 500 people during the Troubles in Northern Ireland.

It was formed in 1966 and adopted the names and symbols of the original UVF, the movement founded in 1912 by Sir Edward Carson to fight against Home Rule.

The UVF was formed with the express intention of executing known IRA men.

But its first victims, a Protestant woman and two Catholic men, had no connections with the IRA.

The murder of Peter Ward, the third victim, brought the UVF and its then leader Gusty Spence to public attention.

Spence was later convicted of the murder and sentenced to 20 years in prison.

The UVF was involved in various atrocities during the Troubles, including the bombing of McGurk's Bar in Belfast, the sectarian killings of the Shankill Butchers, and the Loughinisland massacre.

It has also been embroiled in feuds with other paramilitary organisations including the LVF and the UDA.

Only last year, a former leader of the Progressive Unionist Party Dawn Purvis said the UVF had not gone anywhere despite decommissioning its weapons in 2009.

In recent years, it has been linked to serious criminality including drug dealing.

That recommendation is now backed by former Secretary of State Lord Mandelson.

He has spoken to Spotlight about talks he was involved in with the UVF leadership, earlier this year.

The leaked threat assessment says the Provisional IRA still exists; there are now a dozen paramilitary groups - more than during the Troubles - and seven of these groups are dissident republican.

History of the UDA

The Ulster Defence Association, formed in 1971, had tens of thousands of members at its peak.

It killed hundreds of people during the Troubles in Northern Ireland and often claimed responsibility for sectarian murders using the cover name the Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF).

The UDA had remained a legal organisation until it was banned in August 1992.

Notorious attacks by the UFF included the shooting dead of five Catholics at a Belfast bookmakers in 1992 and the Greysteel massacre the following year.

A former high-profile leader of the UFF is Johnny Adair, who was released from prison in 2005 after serving two thirds of a 16-year sentence for directing terrorism on behalf of the organisation.

He had been expelled by the UDA in 2002 and later left NI following a loyalist feud, after his Shankill Road power base crumbled.

In November 2007, the UDA issued a statement saying "the war is over".

It later said it had stood down the UFF and all UFF weapons were being put "beyond use", but that did not mean they would be decommissioned.

In 2018, the then PSNI Chief Constable George Hamilton said members of the UDA and UVF were still involved in organised crime.

There have been threats this year to journalists and politicians following stories about the South East Antrim UDA's criminal activities in the Sunday World and Sunday Life newspapers.

Earlier this week, the West Belfast UDA were reported to have made threats against two journalists working for the Sunday World newspaper in NI.

This is the first full assessment to emerge publicly, since 2015, when the British Government set out the position with all the different groups, following the IRA murder of Belfast man Kevin McGuigan.

At that time, the Stormont Executive almost collapsed but was saved by the assessment which said the Provisional IRA was wholly committed to the political process.

The new assessment says this is still the position and the IRA is in a much-reduced form and not recruiting or training.

But it also says the organisation still has access to weapons.

Democratic Unionist Party MP Gavin Robinson said his party were mindful of the situation.

"There can be no naivety around that," he said.

"We know that has been the situation for decades. we know at the time of 2015, the security assessment highlighted a commitment to the democratic institutions and a whole commitment to politics but we have to keep our eyes wide open."

A Sinn Féin spokesperson again insisted "the IRA is gone, has left the stage and is not coming back".

Spotlight is repeated on BBC Two NI on Wednesday and will be available on the BBC iPlayer.