The man who thinks he could be the next first minister

Plaid Cymru's leader Rhun ap Iorwerth believes it is a straight choice between him and Labour's Eluned Morgan to be first minister after next year's Senedd election.

He also says he is not complacent.

If recent polls are right – some suggest that Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform are neck and neck - he's the best chance Plaid Cymru has had since talks for a "rainbow coalition" failed in 2007.

But if he is serious about becoming the first non-Labour first minister – and given Labour's problems with the NHS, education, a former first minister, and an unpopular UK Labour government - shouldn't ap Iorwerth's party be surging ahead in the polls?

Speaking ahead of Plaid's spring conference, he did not dispute the lack of a polling surge.

"We can look out for surges or we can look out for sustained growth for the party," he said.

"And I think I am more interested in that. We have just had the best result we have ever had in a UK general election, we have just had a poll recently that had Plaid Cymru in the lead as the largest party in Wales going into this crucial period.

"Sitting here from where I am now I am not complacent at all either about where we are or keeping an eye on what the other parties are doing."

Surges do catch the eye though.

Privately, Plaid has been peeved at all the recent talk of a Reform surge in Wales and feel that some of the media – especially in London – has ignored their own polling performance.

Plaid think that voters in Wales want change. They hope that it is for them, and not for Reform.

Next May – whether surging or steady – they face a familiar challenge.

They need to win seats in the south Wales valleys, something they've managed sporadically in Rhondda and Islwyn in 1999, Rhondda again in 2016 and through the South Wales Central and South Wales East regional lists.

When she lost her Rhondda seat in 2021, the party's former leader Leanne Wood said Plaid needed a valleys strategy.

Ap Iorwerth said the party has had special conferences about the valleys vote, but that under the new Senedd voting system every vote will count.

Wales will be split into 16 new constituencies, each returning six Senedd Members, with parties rewarded for the percentage of vote share they win.

Prof Jac Larner from Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre said Plaid would benefit from Labour voters switching to them for Senedd elections and explained what the party needed to do for ap Iorwerth to become first minister.

"Plaid are almost guaranteed, given where they are at the moment, to win at least one seat in every one of those valleys constituencies," he said.

"The question is whether they can pick up a second seat in those constituencies and that will come down to very fine margins.

"So if they can pick up a second seat in the valleys and then rely on possibly winning three seats along the western coasts and the Welsh-speaking areas, that is what's going to put them in the strongest position."

He said it would be the most competitive election in Welsh Parliamentary history.

On a trip to an adult and toddler group in Caerphilly last week – somewhere where Plaid would hope to pick up votes – it was clear that the cost of living crisis is still biting.

Eleri from Tonypandy said: "We've cut back on everything we can at home – bills and shopping. I certainly don't shop at Ocado and go to Lidl, but with things like water and electricity going up there's not much you can do."

Graham said he worked full time but "looking at my budget it is quite scary when I see prices going up and up".

Neither Graham, nor Cerys, a mum struggling with childcare costs, said they had heard much from any of the political parties that convinced them.

All parties will promise to deliver – be that shorter waiting lists or better public services and jobs.

But with voters looking for hope and even respite, might they be swayed by whoever does the best job of persuasion? Could this election therefore be a battle of the communicators?

Morgan speaks her mind.

Darren Millar of the Welsh Conservatives does too.

Nigel Farage is Nigel Farage – he won arguably the most consequential UK vote for a generation in 2016.

Ap Iorwerth is a former BBC presenter and correspondent. Don't "at" me as to whether that means good communications is a given.

But ap Iorwerth, like all the other party leaders, is about to put those skills to the ultimate test.