Scotland misses targets on reducing child poverty

The Scottish government has missed its legal targets for reducing child poverty.

Figures released for the year from 2023 to 2024 show a relative rate of child poverty at 22%, while the rate of absolute poverty was 17%.

Both figures are down from the previous year, but they fall short of the government's interim target of getting relative poverty below 18% and absolute poverty below 14%.

The Scottish government welcomed the drop from last year's figures, but warned that the UK government's "austerity drive" was putting progress at risk.

First Minister John Swinney has made eliminating child poverty his top priority as first minister.

Data for the UK as a whole shows that 31% of children are living in relative poverty - up from 30% last year.

It is estimated that, on average, about 220,000 children in Scotland were living in relative poverty over the period from 2021 to 2024.

This means they are in a household which has an income less than 60% of the median average for families of the same size across the UK.

In 2017, the Scottish Parliament set legally-binding targets to reduce the number of children in relative poverty to less than 10% by 2030.

However, ministers have conceded there is no enforcement mechanism if the targets are missed.

Charities have previously warned the government's interim target will "almost certainly" be missed.

But the first minister has said the 2030 target can still be met "if there is the right policy focus across the board".

He has pledged to mitigate the effects of the two-child benefit cap, though payments for this are not expected to begin until 2026.

Data on low income and material deprivation - which measures children in poorer households without basic goods and services - was also released.

This stood at 9% in 2023/24, just above the target level of 8%.

Levels of persistent poverty rose to 23%, well above the target of 8%.

Meanwhile, 20% of working-age adults and 15% of pensioners are in relative poverty after housing costs.

The Scottish government's figures also showed minority ethnic households are more likely to be in poverty than those of white British ethnicity.

Fiona King, from Save The Children Scotland, welcomed the Scottish government's investment in social security but warned that "not nearly enough" is being done.

She said: "We are deeply disappointed to have not seen more progress.

"We know that the actions being taken by the Scottish government, including the Scottish Child Payment, are having a real impact for children and their families – but it is simply not enough."

Dave Hawkey, senior research fellow at IPPR Scotland, said the Scottish government will "almost certainly miss its legally binding 2030 targets, possibly by some distance".

He added: "It is incumbent on the Scottish government to bring forward a clear plan with costed policies that will ensure Scotland meets its 2030 targets.

"Alongside support for parents to find good sustainable jobs, this will require investing more in measures – such as the Scottish Child Payment - that directly support the living standards of poor children and families."

Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said the statistics marked a "welcome fall" in the number of children in poverty in Scotland.

She said: "The significant progress made is due to Scottish government actions including our Scottish Child Payment, extension of free school meals and delivering £3bn to support households through the cost of living crisis.

"But yesterday's statement from the Chancellor made very clear our progress is at risk.

"Labour's austerity drive is not only holding progress back - they are actively pushing at least 50,000 children into poverty with planned welfare cuts."

The Scottish Conservatives' social security spokeswoman Liz Smith said the SNP were "still failing to meet their own targets" despite the first minister "repeatedly" committing to tackle child poverty.

She added: "At the same time, the nationalists have allowed Scotland's benefits bill to balloon to unsustainable levels and taken their eye off the ball when it comes to helping people into work."

Scottish Labour social justice spokesman Paul O'Kane said the Scottish government has failed to make the progress needed.

"Any reduction in child poverty is welcome but it is clear that much more needs to be done if the SNP is going to get things back on track," he said.

"The UK Labour government has already acted to tackle insecure work which often contributes to poverty and has put more money into the pockets of working people and families, with real wages growing at their fastest rate in over three years."

Scottish Liberal Democrat communities spokesman Willie Rennie said it was "no surprise" that the SNP had "left thousands of children in poverty".

"They have the powers, the target was set a long time ago but only belatedly was the action taken to tackle child poverty," he added.

We are told the best way to look at these figures is over a three-year average, where poverty levels remain "broadly stable".

But all eyes were on the 2023-24 figures in today's release for a simple reason - that year is the benchmark where MSPs agreed to set a legal target. A target that has been missed.

The Scottish government is keen to focus on those single-year figures too, because they do show an improvement on previous years.

They are also markedly better than the UK-wide ones, where relative poverty has increased to 31%.

So it is fair for ministers to reflect that things appear to have started to move in the right direction, and to point to their interventions as being more successful in cutting poverty.

But they have made a huge investment in policies like the Scottish Child Payment and a more generous welfare system.

If those policies - as widely welcomed as they are - still aren't enough to hit the targets, there are huge questions over how ministers are going to hit the next benchmark in 2030.

And further measures will almost certainly be needed if John Swinney is to achieve his goal of eradicating child poverty entirely.